Tag Archives: london underground

Why fewer Londoners are taking the tube: a transport researcher explains

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This guest blog was written by Nicole Badstuber, Researcher in Urban Transport Governance at the Centre for Transport Studies, UCL.

For the first time since 2008, the number of people using the world-famous London Underground – locally known as “the tube” – has fallen. After over two decades of long-term growth, passenger numbers are down 2%, from 1.38 billion in the financial year 2016-17, to 1.35 billion in 2017-18. Bus use also peaked in 2014, and has been falling steadily each year. Simply put, fewer people in London are using public transport – and this means fewer ticket sales. This has created a funding gap that puts plans for improvements and upgrades in serious jeopardy.

Since the national government cut its £700m a year grant, London’s transport agency, Transport for London (TfL), has been banking on ticket sales to fund the capital’s transport system. But this year, TfL has had to revise its income from tickets sales down by £240m.

This spells trouble for the agency, which plans for ticket sales to generate up to £6.2 billion, or 62%, of the £10.2 billion budget for 2022-23 – a step increase from today’s £4.6 billion, or 45% of this year’s budget. Since London Mayor Sadiq Khan is committed to freezing single fares, additional growth will need to come from more passengers.

This is, in some ways, a reasonable expectation: population and employment – the key drivers of transport demand – are still growing in London. TfL points towards economic factors, including the uncertainty of Brexit, to explain the downturn in demand for public transport. But this year’s lower passenger numbers point instead towards lifestyle changes, which are affecting when and how people choose to travel.

London’s missing passengers

Travel surveys show that the average Londoner made only 2.2 trips (across all transport modes) a day in 2016-17, down 20% from 2006-7. So despite population growth, transport demand has not risen as much as expected. This decline is mirrored across England: between 2002 and 2016 a 9% drop in trips across all modes was recorded.

Passenger numbers and journey stages on London Underground. Travel in London Report 10/TfL, Author provided

Flexible and remote working practices are contributing to this trend: instead of commuting to work five days, the new normal for Londoners is now four. Over the past decade, commuting trips have dropped by 14.2%.

At the same time, the cost of travel has been increasing. While single fares on the bus and the tube cost approximately the same in real terms between 2000 and 2012, they have increased 5% and 3% respectively since then. The cost of season tickets is up even more; 8% on the bus and 6% on the London Underground in real terms since 2012.

Greater transport costs mean less disposable income, which partially explains why Londoners are making fewer leisure and shopping trips, instead opting to stay home and shop online. Meanwhile, London’s changing mix of traffic suggests that personal trips are being substituted with deliveries. This shifts the burden from the public transport network to the road network. Across London, light goods vans are making up a growing proportion of traffic: accounting for 14% of traffic in 2016, up from 10% in 1993 and 11% in 2000.

Trouble for TFL

To avoid a major shortfall, TfL will need to look at new ways to fund transport. One solution might be to reform London’s congestion charge. Currently, the congestion charge covers less than 1.5% of the city, applies only between 7am and 6pm, consists of a simple, daily flat rate, and exempts private hire vehicles – your Uber drivers and minicabs.

Over the past four years, there has been a 75% increase in the number of registered private hire vehicles. On Friday and Saturday nights, 18,000 cars flood the streets of Central London. With New York City set to introduce a surcharge for taxis and private hire vehicles (US$2.50 and US$2.75 respectively), London might also want to follow suit.

A more comprehensive road pricing strategy would be an effective tool to manage traffic and generate funds for the transport system. A reformed congestion charge alongside good public transport, cycling infrastructure and public space could encourage Londoners to shift away from their cars toward travelling by public transport, walking and cycling.

TfL predicts that most of its revenue growth – £3.2 billion over the next five years – will come from the new Elizabeth Line, which is set to start running in December 2018. By 2022-23, TfL expects passenger numbers on the Elizabeth Line to increase by 200m to 269m, and tickets sales to earn £913m. Over the same period, passenger numbers on the London Underground and bus network are forecast to rise by just 5% and 3% respectively.

Almost ready? Department for Transport/Flickr., CC BY-NC-ND

The income from the Elizabeth Line is crucial to TfL balancing its books. As outgoing deputy mayor for transport, Val Shawcross, warned, delays to the Elizabeth Line opening on time are TfL’s greatest revenue risk. So as engineering challenges threaten to push back the opening date, TfL’s money worries look set to worsen.

The funding conundrum

TfL is also seeking to earn from developments on some of the 300 acres of land it owns in the city. By 2022-23, the property partnerships agreed between TfL and thirteen large property development companies in 2016 are set to generate £3.4 billion of income to reinvest into London’s transport system. London Mayor Sadiq Khan is pushing for further sites to be unlocked, to generate more funds and meet his manifesto commitment to build more affordable homes for Londoners.

Khan’s manifesto pledge to freeze single fare tickets throughout his term is estimated to cost £640m. Arguably, reneging on that promise could return £640m to TfL’s purse. TfL points to national rail services where fares are higher and the reduction in passenger numbers has been greater, and argue that the fare freeze blunted the drop in passenger numbers.

If TfL fails to find new ways to fund its network, more cuts to upgrade and capital programmes are only a matter of time. The agency has already cut its funding for streets, cycling and public spaces in London’s boroughs, and suspended its roads renewal programme and underground capacity upgrades. TfL’s reliance on ticket sales to fund the capital’s transport system makes it very vulnerable to unexpected changes in demand. To ensure London continues to have a world-class transport system, both Khan and TfL must urgently find new sources of funding.

Nicole Badstuber is Researcher in Urban Transport Governance at the Centre for Transport Studies, UCL

This article was originally published on The Conversation website and has been republished with permission under a Creative Commons licence. Read the original article.

The 24-hour city – the Night Tube launches London into an elite group

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london tubeBy Heather Cameron

With the long-awaited launch of the night tube service at the weekend, London has joined a growing number of cities across the globe that offer all-night subway services to varying degrees – including New York, Copenhagen, Berlin, Barcelona and Sydney.

More than 100,000 travellers used the service in its first 48 hours, which was hailed as a “great success” by Transport for London (TfL), and many were “impressed with the service”.

The new service is being phased in, with trains running all night on Fridays and Saturdays, initially on two out of the 11 lines, roughly every 10 minutes.

Demand

According to TfL, demand for such a night-time service has soared in recent years, with passenger numbers having increased by around 70% on Friday and Saturday nights since 2000. And use of the night bus has increased by 173% since 2000, outstripping demand for all other forms of transport across London.

There has been growth in night-time activities across the UK, which have expanded beyond just pubs, clubs and alcohol-related activities. There has been an increase in the number of flexible venues, casinos, all-night cinemas and gyms. The total value of the night-time economy in the UK has been estimated at £66 billion, employing 1.3 million people.

The night tube is also reportedly driving up house prices, as demand for property near the lines running the service is high.

Who benefits?

Independent research into the economic benefits of the night tube conducted in 2014 estimated that it will cut night-time journeys by 20 minutes on average, with some being reduced by almost an hour. It also found that the night tube could support around 2000 permanent jobs and boost the city’s night-time economy by £360 million – although it is expected to take three years to break even. The benefit-to-cost ratio is estimated at 2.7:1 – meaning it will generate £2.70 for every pound spent.

Other unquantifiable benefits were also identified, including improved commuter journeys for night-time workers, potential for longer operating hours for a variety of businesses and reduced congestion.

Late night revellers will no longer have to rush for the last train, cutting short their nights out. The service could also benefit shift workers and those working in the hospitality industry. Figures from TfL show that more than 50% of people using night buses are going to or returning from work.

But while the potential positive impacts have been emphasised, there have also been concerns raised over potential negative impacts.

Concerns

Residents living near the Central line fear their quality of life, as well as the value of their homes, will be affected by the noise generated by trains running every 20 minutes during Friday and Saturday night. And TfL’s own risk assessment has reportedly highlighted similar concerns.

Alcohol-related anti-social behaviour has also long been recognised as a challenge for the night-time economy. A recent report from the London Assembly notes that alcohol features in a higher proportion of crimes in London that occur at night than during the day. Many of these are concentrated in areas with a strong night-time economy.

So it is no surprise that the Mayor has invested £3.4 million in police funding for the night tube. If the launch weekend is anything to go by, however, it would appear that any dramatic increase in crime as a result of the night tube has not materialised.

Final thoughts

It is of course too early to tell whether the night tube will bring the economic and social benefits to the city as predicted. What is clear is that the night tube supports London in its drive to becoming a truly 24-hour city. And it should be encouraging that other 24-hour subways have been successful, such as those serving New York and Berlin.

The success or failure of London’s night tube could also pave the way for other cities thinking of making the move.

If you enjoyed reading this, you may also be interested in our previous blog on night-time transport infrastructure in global cities.

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Another world first for London Underground: energy from braking trains

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By James Carson

London’s Tube may be the oldest underground network in the world, but it’s still breaking new ground. Last month, engineers began testing a process that enables waste energy from Tube train brakes to be collected and recycled.

In just one week of operation, the new technology recovered enough power to run a station as large as Holborn for more than two days per week. Transport for London (TfL) believes the results show that the new green technology could allow London Underground to tap into a previously inaccessible resource, reducing its overall carbon footprint and saving as much as £6m every year for reinvestment in improving transport.

State-of-the-art

The new ‘inverter’ system was used for the first time at the Cloudesley Road substation on the Victoria line for a five-week trial. It works by collecting energy generated by the trains when they brake before feeding it back into the power mains as electricity.

Commenting on the successful trial, Chris Tong, LU’s Head of Power and Cooling, said:

‘This state-of-the-art regenerative braking system has the potential to transform how we power stations across the TfL network, unlocking massive power savings and significantly reducing our energy bills.”

As well as saving energy, the technology has the added benefit of reducing the amount of heat generated by trains braking in tunnels, which in turn would reduce the energy required to operate London Underground’s cooling systems.

“The trial puts London at the cutting edge of this kind of technology,” said Matthew Pencharz, London’s deputy mayor for environment and energy. “And it clearly demonstrates how energy from trains can be recovered to power Tube stations, making the network more environmentally friendly and cost-effective.”

‘Green’ modernisation

The trial follows a number of other measures put in place by the Mayor and Transport for London to ‘green’ the Capital’s Tube system. In January, it was announced that the historic Greenwich Power Station would be revamped to transform it into a low-carbon power generator for the Tube network. Its six new gas engines will replace existing boilers and provide cheaper, cleaner power for the Tube, with waste heat being channelled into a new local heat network that will also benefit residents.

Green technology is an important part of London Underground’s largest programme of modernisation in decades, with major stations, trains, track and control systems being updated or replaced to provide a 30 per cent increase in capacity across the Tube network.

Recycling energy from braking systems is one example of ways in which engineers and architects are thinking more creatively about meeting the needs of a rapidly growing city. Another radical proposal from a London architecture practice has suggested replacing the Circle Line with a high-speed travelator!

 

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Further reading*

Equipping London for the challenges of the future

Waste not, want not at TfL (waste management at Transport for London)

Squeezing in (off-peak working and commuting in London)

Leading London into a smarter future (Transport for London)

World class? London’s transport – progress and future challenges

*Some resources may only be available to members of the Idox Information Service

A tale of five cities: night time transport infrastructure in global cities

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By Rebecca Jackson

As London’s launch of its new night tube services is delayed, we compare night-time transport infrastructure in 5 cities and consider the importance of the night tube to allow London to maintain its status as one of the world’s great cities.

London is viewed, like most modern-day cities, as a 24-hour hub of activity, and supporters of the night tube have argued that we need 24- hour infrastructure to support it. The importance of the night tube on London’s night time economy has been heavily emphasised by supporters of the roll out. According to TfL, the night tube will create almost 2,000 new jobs and contribute £360m to the economy:

“Demand for a 24-hour Tube service is clear – late night Tube use has increased at double the rate of day-time trips and Night Bus usage has risen by 173 per cent since 2000. There are already over half a million users of the Tube after 22:00 on Fridays and Saturdays.”

Under the plans for the night tube, services will run 24 hours over Friday and Saturday on five main tube lines: Jubilee, Victoria, Piccadilly, Northern and Central lines. Plans for further expansion are already in place.

But how does London compare with other world cities?

Many major world cities operate late running underground services, particularly at weekends. However when London eventually launches its night tube, it will become one of only seven cities to have ‘around the clock’ underground transportation, either in full or on particular days of the week. The other six are: Copenhagen, Berlin, Stockholm, Sydney, Chicago and New York.

That leaves many other major world cities with transport networks which do not reflect their ’24-hour’ reputations. Cities like Hong Kong, Bangkok, Tokyo, Los Angeles and Paris have more limited night-time transport services but still effectively serve the inhabitants of some of the worlds biggest cities.

Hong Kong

Hong Kong has a highly developed and sophisticated public transport network which has made it the envy of city planners across the world. However it does not operate a 24 hour transport system, nor are there plans to introduce one.

Hong Kong’s public transport system is supported by 24- hour ferry services, buses, trams and moving public walkways to allow easy travel through the city although few of these run beyond midnight. Underground trains feature below ground 3G, colour coded stations to ease navigation of passengers and an integrated payment system in the form of an “Octopus” card. The equivalent of London’s “Oyster” card, it was the first of its kind in the world and can be used on all public transport in Hong Kong. Tickets cost an average of $14 HKD (£1.18).

New York

Hosting one of the largest underground train systems in the world, New York has been committed to offering 24 hour underground transportation since its first trains ran in 1904. It’s total track length spans the distance from Chicago to New York.

Recently they introduced a system which can email commuters details of a delayed journey to work, to justify lateness to employers; they also have an email alert system to inform passengers of delays on selected routes. An average equivalent Zone 1-6 fare in New York would cost $2.75 (£1.76) The London average is £5.10.

Paris

The second busiest subway system in Europe after Moscow, the Paris subway carries an average of 4.2 million passengers a day. Standard operating times are between 05:30am- 01:15am, except Friday, Saturday and nights before national holidays, when services run until 02:15.

There is contemplation in the French capital of whether to introduce a 24 hour service there – the success or failure of London’s scheme will undoubtedly impact on their decision. Paris metro fares are significantly lower than those in London, with tickets in the region of €1.80 (£1.28).

Copenhagen

Not the first city you might think of when looking at transportation in global cities, but in terms of transport infrastructure Copenhagen has one of the best in the world. Their driverless underground system has operated 24/7 since 2002. In addition an S-train system runs from 05:00am- 00:30am daily.

Awarded the “Best Metro” and “Best Driver-less Metro” awards at the 2010 MetroRail congress in London, the Copenhagen system is considered one of the safest, cleanest and most efficient underground lines in the world. An average ticket on this service would cost around 31 Danish Krone (£3.08).

Blueprint for the future

When London’s night tube finally launches, under the branding ‘free the night’, TfL will be keen to stress the unique qualities it will bring to London’s transport system. By making the city accessible for longer, the night tube will place London among a select group of world cities with 24-hour transport infrastructure.

And the success of the programme could prove key to encouraging some of the world’s other largest cities to follow suit, potentially allowing London to provide a blueprint for services which could be emulated across the globe.

Follow us on Twitter to see what developments in public and social policy are interesting our research team.

Read our article How data and smart city infrastructure can support transport planning for more on intelligent mobility and how London is leading the way in the use of data in transport planning.